A good indicator of mature states on the verge of collapse is the degree of corruption found in elitist group(s) perpetuated on their fellow citizens. With mathematical modeling Peter Turchin of the University of Connecticut has predicted this fact. ‘War and Peace and War’ Pi press 2005)
In healthy growing societies resources are shared with a degree of equity, with high employment. After this though the population outgrows the demand for labour, which grows cheap and employers become rich, causing inequality to widen. ‘Elites’ proliferate and compete for power and patronage, and if one group succeeds in grabbing a bigger slice of the pie than others there is generally trouble ahead.
There are many examples in history leading up to the present day. In 16th Century France for example, decades of civil war followed when one aristocratic clan elbowed out the others and Turchin also notes that Egypt saw a quadrupling of graduates, a classic sign of a burgeoning elite in recent years.
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